Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where the basketball transfer portal has officially closed for the summer. That doesn’t mean roster movement is over, by any means — anyone already in the portal can still sign with a team whenever they want — but the market has settled somewhat. Enough at least to give us an idea of how much it exploded over the last year.
So to better understand just how much that NIL market has been moving, I reached out to Evan Miya of the tremendous college basketball analytics site, EvanMiya.com, to ask about his proprietary data on the transfer portal, the sharp rise in player payments and how USC fits into that moving picture this offseason.
Q: It’s been almost a year since revenue sharing went into effect across college athletics. What has the data shown about how the transfer portal market in college basketball has shifted between those two cycles?
Evan Miya: People have wondered for several years if/when the NIL market for college basketball would stabilize. So far, it has done anything but yet. The roster budgets at the high-major level close to doubled between the 2024 and 2025 offseason, and in this year’s cycle, the proprietary NIL data I have access to at EvanMiya.com shows that the market is up 65% from last year. So a player that would have been worth $1 million last year would now be worth $1.65 million this offseason. And that market increase is a little higher than that if we are strictly talking about high-major players.
Q: Can you give a sense of what the market in this transfer portal cycle looks like? How much are teams paying for starters? What positions are most in demand? How much is the top-end player receiving?
Miya: My guess is that we’ll end up with 20 or more players earning north of $4 million dollars this year, and that’s probably a conservative guess. A few players are more in the $6-7 million range. It was reported by Jeff Goodman in early April that top big men in the portal were going for around $4-5 million. However, I think the biggest jump has come in that next tier of players — there’s a lot more guys earning $1-3 million dollars than there were last season.
Q: What does the data tell us about what it costs in the portal now to build a contender?
Miya: The average budget for a high-major program is probably now around $10 million, with several programs spending over $20 million this year. My rough guess is that our national champion in 2027 will have spent north of $15 million on their roster, if not closer to 20.
Q: Eric Musselman and USC have made some big moves in the transfer portal this month. What does the data suggest about how much — and in what ways — the roster has improved?
Miya: Musselman should have a vastly improved roster this year, which I estimate will be in the top-10 rosters in the sport based on the talent they have amassed. The team looks particularly strong defensively, and I wouldn’t be surprised to look up in January and see that USC has a top-five defense in the sport if things go according to plan. As of April 24, USC’s incoming transfer class is ranked as the eighth-best in the nation at EvanMiya.com, which means they have added more talent through the portal than most teams.
USC coach Brad Keller on college volleyball
USC women’s volleyball coach Brad Keller.
(Nam Y. Huh / Associated Press)
The Big Ten Conference announced earlier recently that it will hold its first women’s volleyball tournament this fall. It’s an essential step in the evolution of the college game and one that USC women’s volleyball coach Brad Keller was fully behind when I spoke with him earlier this month.
“I love it,” Keller said. “I love that our commissioner and leaders are proactive in this and trying to push women’s sports and get them in front of studios and spotlights and markets and media and everything. It’s the world that we’re in.”
Women’s volleyball is one of just a few sports at USC that benefits from direct revenue-share payments, and that’s because the school’s leaders saw it as the fastest-growing of any of its non-revenue sports. ESPN saw a major rise in viewership through the volleyball season. Nearly two million people watched the NCAA title match last season, while over one million watched the semifinals.
Keller thinks it can keep growing too. Especially if the sport can find and build around big personalities, such as women’s basketball did with Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese. But that also means sinking more money into growing the game.
“Each institution has to figure out where they’re gonna place their money or whatnot, and they’re under stress, Keller said. “But you have to keep investing in this. I think you have to continue to try to create a professional league and make it even better — like better volleyball, better TV, to really spark it. We just need to flood the gates with all sorts of stimulation is what I think. I think we’re in that space. And I like that. I like that a lot, honestly.”
So far, USC’s leaders have been in lockstep with that strategy, and Keller says that’s put his program in a good spot to take advantage.
“I love the fact that [athletic director Jennifer Cohen] has invested in us,” Keller said. I love her clarity, I love her direction, I love how she stands firm, I love that she’s always there. And, she is doing great for USC women’s volleyball.”
Makai Lemon will be with the Philadelphia Eagles next season.
(Gene J. Puskar/AP)
—USC had two receivers drafted in the top-100 for the first time in almost 20 years. The Philadelphia Eagles traded up to select Makai Lemon with the 20th overall pick, while Ja’Kobi Lane went 80th overall, in the third round, to the Baltimore Ravens. It’s a good landing spot for both. Lemon will fit in well in Philadelphia, while Lane, who was volatile at times during his USC tenure, lands in a good organization where one of his high school mentors, Todd Heap, had a Pro Bowl career. Both have a pathway to playing time right away.
—Safety Kamari Ramsey was the only other Trojan drafted. Ramsey was picked in the fifth round (141st overall) by the Houston Texans, who love USC players more than any other NFL organization. For Ramsey, it’s probably a tough pill to swallow considering how much higher he would’ve been drafted had he declared a year ago. But he’ll pair nicely with former USC safety and ascending star Calen Bullock. I was shocked that no other USC players heard their names called beyond that. Defensive end Anthony Lucas and safety Bishop Fitzgerald seemed like sure things as late-round options, while I figured someone would take a lottery ticket on Eric Gentry at linebacker. Lake McRee also went undrafted. But all four landed preferred free agent deals — Lucas in Detroit, Fitzgerald in Tennessee, McRee with Pittsburgh and Gentry with Cincinnati. DeCarlos Nicholson (Browns) and Keeshawn Silver (Saints) also landed deals.
—I wouldn’t expect a ton of Trojans to be drafted next year, either. But after that … Jayden Maiava will be the headliner among USC prospects next spring and could play his way into being a first-round guy during the upcoming season. Defensive end Kameryn Crawford has all the tools to climb up draft boards, and transfer cornerback Jontez Williams, if he lives up to his portal hype, could see his stock skyrocket if all goes well. Some others who have the potential to play their way into being picked, if they choose to declare: Jide Abasiri, Elijah Paige, Waymond Jordan. But it’s after that, in the 2028 and 2029 drafts, where USC could see a much larger crop of players selected. That should tell you a lot about USC’s recent history of recruiting.
—USC baseball bounces back (again) with a home series sweep. The Trojans followed a pair of four-game losing streaks over the last month with a huge performance at home, this time with three wins against Purdue, with whom it was tied in the Big Ten. Just two conference series remain in the regular season slate, the last of which will be a critical road test against Oregon, which is currently in third place in the Big Ten. USC could use a win (or two) in Eugene just to help its tournament resume. The Trojans are currently 0-8 in Quad 1 games.
Olympic sports spotlight
USC women’s water polo players celebrate after defeating California for the NCAA title.
(Derrick Tuskan / NCAA)
For the final four minutes of the NCAA women’s water polo national championship, USC found itself holding on for dear life, clinging tightly to a one-goal lead over Cal, which was refusing to go lightly.
But after a five-year wait since its last national title, USC finished the job Sunday, coming away with a 10-9 win that secured the program’s eighth national title.
In the 25 years that women’s water polo has been an NCAA sport, USC has now won over a quarter of the national titles that the NCAA has awarded. Not too shabby.
It’s the first water polo title for the Big Ten.
What I’m watching this week
Zendaya in Season 3 of “Euphoria.”
(Patrick Wymore / HBO)
Since it first debuted in 2019, “Euphoria” looked unlike any other show on television, and still, seven years later, it’s the most visually stunning show out there.
We spent most of that time waiting for more “Euphoria” episodes to drop, as its leads — Zendaya, Jacob Elordi, Sydney Sweeney, to name a few — became some of the biggest movie stars in the world. But finally, this month, Season 3 made its debut. So far, it’s been worth the wait.
Euphoria wastes no time jumping right back in with both feet. After fast-forwarding a few years in time, we find Rue (Zendaya) working off her drug debts as a runner across the Mexican border while her friends survive in various states of Bret Easton Ellis-level discontent. Three episodes in, I have no idea where we’re headed. But boy am I glad to be back on this trip again.
In case you missed it
‘Why is Philly calling me?’ USC’s Makai Lemon was on the phone with another team when Eagles swooped in
Cancer left him blind. When his son was diagnosed, ex-USC long snapper found Trojans had his back again
Eric Reibe rejected UConn to solve USC’s recurring problem: finding a real big man
Until next time …
That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at ryan.kartje@latimes.com, and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.
