Carlsen, Caruana Give Gukesh-Sindarov World Championship Predictions

GM Javokhir Sindarov’s historic win at the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament saw him return home a hero to Uzbekistan, where he was met in Tashkent Airport by the prime minister before being awarded a second medal in six months by the president. Can he now go on and beat GM Gukesh Dommaraju to win the world chess championship title? World number-one GM Magnus Carlsen and number-three GM Fabiano Caruana gave their verdict.

Sindarov had already been phoned with congratulations from Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev while still in Cyprus, and he arrived back home on Friday to a hero’s welcome. First that was at the airport, where he was met by Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, as well as his friend and rival GM Nodirbek Abdusattorov.

Sindarov’s grandmother Jamila Sindarova was among those in attendance, commenting: “I watched every game, sometimes even crying from tension. But Javokhir overcame all obstacles. Reading comments online, I realized: my grandson has become a son not only to our family, but to the entire people of Uzbekistan.”

That theme was echoed at the next reception, with the president, who commented, “It would be correct to say that our son Javokhir is the pride and honor of our entire Uzbekistan,” and handed Sindarov the “Mehnat shuhrati” or “Glory of labor” medal. In fact, as a reporter points out in the video below, Sindarov wasn’t only breaking records on the chessboard: “You are the only Uzbek to receive a second award from the President of Uzbekistan within six months.”

Sindarov had been made an Honored Athlete of Uzbekistan for winning the FIDE World Cup. Offering the Candidates winning trophy to the President, he commented on the world championship match, saying, “God willing, when I bring the crown, I will also give it to you!” In fact, Sindarov’s thoughts were straying beyond that as he noted of world number-four Abdusattorov, “I dream of two Uzbeks competing for the world crown, and I think this will one day come true.”

Other players have also been giving their verdict on the Gukesh-Sindarov match, expected to take place from mid-November to December this year. Carlsen appeared on a big screen at the Chessparty held in the Avicii Arena in Stockholm, Sweden at the weekend and was asked who he thought would win:

At the moment it’s impossible not to say Sindarov. We know anything can happen in a world championship match, but I’m first of all really, really curious as to what Sindarov can do in the next few months, because he’s very, very different from Gukesh in the sense that Gukesh has very, very obvious weaknesses when it comes to his understanding, and Sindarov does not in the same way. He’s a lot more well-rounded, so we’ll see.

Gukesh has very, very obvious weaknesses when it comes to his understanding, and Sindarov does not.

—Magnus Carlsen 

There’s been some speculation that a win for Sindarov might tempt Carlsen back to fighting for the classical world championship title, but when asked if he’d play for the world championship he responded: “In several formats, certainly. In classical chess—absolutely not!”

He expanded:

I’ll play the things that I want to play, and I will make those decisions largely independent of what people may or may not expect of me. I think I’ve kind of achieved what I want to achieve in chess and the classical world championship is not something I’m interested in at all.

The classical world championship is not something I’m interested in at all.

—Magnus Carlsen

The Chessparty featured Magnus’ father Henrik, as well as the likes of GMs Judit Polgar, Pia Cramling, David Howell, and Nils Grandelius, IM Levy Rozman, WFM Anna Cramling, and Andrea Botez, but Magnus himself was absent, since he was in Los Angeles for the announcement of $18.75 million in 2026 Breakthrough Prizes, “honoring scientists whose discoveries are significantly driving growth of human knowledge.”

Carlsen was joined by Olympic Freestyle Skiing Champion Eileen Gu to present an award to Cliff Brangwynne and Tony Hyman. 




Carlsen commented in an interview: “It feels incredible, I’ve been here a couple of times before, and it’s honestly so touching and inspiring. I think we will see the fruits of this in the generations to come and with all the work that’s being done to push kids into STEM.”

Eileen Gu and Magnus Carlsen at the award presentation for Tony Hyman and Cliff Brangwynne. Photo: Breakthrough Prize Foundation.

Caruana finished third in the Candidates but, after facing Carlsen in 2018, knows first-hand what it means to play for the world championship title. In the C-Squared podcast with his second GM Cristian Chirila, they talked about the match. 

Caruana commented:

It’s very easy to just say Sindarov is going to win, but Gukesh has had tournaments like this—the Olympiad, the Candidates, he’s won tournaments! Do we really assume that a 19-year-old is just done? Like he had a bad period and he’s just finished? I see no reason why Gukesh cannot recover and then the question is, ‘Is Sindarov going to be in as good form as here?’ If he is, then yeah, probably nobody’s stopping him.

Do we really assume that a 19-year-old is just done?

—Caruana on Gukesh

Caruana points out that GM Ding Liren had been written off before the match against Gukesh, but in the end it was very close. He sees that happening again:

So I’m predicting a close match, actually pretty close to balanced. Gukesh also has experience, he’ll prepare, he’ll think about his approach. If he doesn’t get too unconfident… It’ll be good for him to have some good results at some point, that’ll give him some confidence. We’ll see Sindarov’s form in the Grand Chess Tour, since he’s playing that. It’s very ironic that he replaced Gukesh in the Grand Chess Tour. I don’t know if it was a good decision by Gukesh, but we’ll see. Prediction is slight money on Sindarov, maybe 55-45.  

Prediction is slight money on Sindarov, maybe 55-45.

—Caruana on Gukesh-Sindarov

As both Carlsen and Caruana mentioned, we’re going to get to see the players in action soon. First up, we have Sindarov in the Chess.com Open that runs tomorrow, Thursday 23 April, until Sunday. 

The bracket was decided before the Candidates began, but it’s set up so that if Carlsen and Sindarov both win their first three matches they’ll meet in the Winners Final.

At stake is a $50,000 top prize as well as qualification for the Esports World Cup.

Then Carlsen will be playing classical chess in the TePe Sigeman & Co Chess Tournament 2026 in Malmo, Sweden from May 1-7. His biggest rival there is Abdusattorov, though the field also includes GM Arjun Erigaisi and 14-year-old 2700-sensation GM Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus.

Then there’s the big one for the upcoming world championship match—Gukesh and Sindarov will play three games in Warsaw, Poland on May 5-9 in the Super Rapid & Blitz Poland 2026. Gukesh has dropped out of being a full tour participant and playing the classical events, but he does play the rapid and blitz in Poland and then Croatia.

The Super Rapid & Blitz Poland lineup. Image: Grand Chess Tour/X.

Let the hype begin! 



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